Feb 14 2013

Had a dud of a day with college basketball. Some of my favorite trends that were 60-70% so far went 0-3. Even CS Fullerton didn't come through for me, and they were like an ATM for me. For that reason, I only bet $50 and not more than 5% of my bankroll.  On a positive note, I am now 50% for hockey, and I hope to keep that trend going.

NHL 14-14-2  Won the only game +$30
Todays Games
Mont/Florida Over 5
Toronto ML +130
PHX/Nashville Under 5

NBA 37-25  No games yesterday
Todays game
Clippers/Lakers Under 199

College Went 1-4 yesterday for a loss of -$122
Todays games

West Illinois/ North Dakota State Under 101
Oakland/South Dakota Over 159  <---- Step out play $50
Hawaii/UC Davis Over 153.5
Cal St Northridge/Pacific Over 141
Gonzaga/St Marys Over 142

We lost $92 for a running total of Plus $120, $1,120.

Good luck today

Feb 13 2013

Great day yesterday, and I hope to continue with the winning. NBA is nearing the All Star Break, and the fact that I am about 60% in the NBA this year is huge. You have to be conservative around this time of the year, and I did get a comment asking how I am doing so well where most handicappers have issues. I can't be certain, but I believe that motivation is hard to predict this time of the year, and I noticed a lot of handicappers use that as a major tool in determining value. I do keep an eye on motivation, but my shortfall does come with having the time to research why one team might have motivation over another. I don't get to watch Sportscenter every night, I work full time and have two young children that I have to give my time to as well. I wake up early to put my stats together and then use my lunch time to research and get lines. I am a stat guy. I love stats and I play with my excel spreadsheets to find value. I see trends like a home dog with more than 2 days rest playing against a road fav with 1 day or bb, covers 65% of the time.  I then take that info with other stats that show teams that cover well as a dog or whatever. Eventually Vegas catches on these as well and the lines start moving. Once I see that the trend is over, I stop, and look for some new values. I always find some value or trend. I keep data on almost everygame. I missed a week in the NBA, but have every game for hockey. College is tough, because there are just too many games. Next year I plan to keep stats on a couple of areas so I can have good detailed info. I know that this is kind of winded, but this is what I do. My ultimate goal is to do this professionally, where I will have all the time I need. Might take a couple more years. I really try to help others who want help, so anyone can always feel free to ask me anything.

Lets get to Games!!!!!

Oh and yes I have a step out play today. My favorite Cal St Fullerton.

NHL Went 2-0-1 yesterday. 13-14-2 for the year.  +$60
Only 3 games today, only game I like is Stl/Det Over 5.5. Elliot has been horrible in goal and every game seems to go over. Actually Jake Allen is in goal. I still like the over. Maybe not as much as I did before, but we will stick with it.

NBA- Won the only game. 37-25 +$30
I don't have any games today. Nothing is sticking out today, and I just dont want to bet a game to bet a game. Got lots of leans, but nothing that I want to risk $ on.

College- 2-1 yesterday 81-75-1  +$27
Todays games
Miami FL -6.5
Forham/Xavier Under 135.5
Air Force +3
NC/Duke Over 153

Step Out Play!!!!!! I will bet $50 on this game instead of $30
Cal St Fullerton/Long Beach St Over 159


Yesterday we made $117 for a new total of $1,212.  I still will keep bets at $30 or around 3%. Once I am up to $1,300 I will start to push it up to $40.

Good luck everyone!!!

Feb 12 2013

Good day yesterday as I close in on 60% for the NBA this year.  I hope to continue with winning.

Hockey- 11-14-2  Went 0-1-1 yesterday  $-33
Todays Games
Mont/TB Over 5.5
Dallas/Edm Under 5
Minn/Van Under 5

NBA Perfect 3-0 yesterday for +90 
36-25
Todays game
Utah +5.5

College Basketball 79-74-1
No games yesterday

Today
Manhattan/Fairfield Under 111.5
Alabama/Georgia Under 112.5
Villanova +7

Total won yesterday $57
Running total $1,095

Good luck everyone

Feb 11 2013

Hope everyone is doing well. I split yesterday and lost money on the juice. I am going to be conservative with college to see if things have changed with certain trends.

NHL 11-13-1
Todays games
Flyers/Toronto Under 5.5
Kings/Stl Over 5

I like San Jose to win, but the line is -170.  A tad too much for me, and hard to take them -1.5 on the road.

NBA
33-25
Todays games
Charlotte/Boston Under 192
New Orleans +5
Washington +4.5

College
79-74-1
Todays game
Manhattan/Fairfield Under 111.5

Our total bank accoutn after the loss is $1,038. We are still in the green, but not where I would like to be.

Good luck everyone

Feb 10 2013

A small loss yesterday, I hope that we can turn things around quickly here. I have noticed that the lines in college basketball have moved a bit, so I am going to keep a close eye as overs have been bringing things back to the mean. It doesn't help that Penn St plays like they are down by 3 when they are down by 15 and keep fouling. That is a lesson learned. I have to be more aware of coaches who make their players play hard the whole time.

NHL- 2-0 sweep yesterday, I hope to be back at .500 soon and then never look back.

Todays Games
Devils/Pitt Over 5
Chicago/Nash Under 5

NBA 32-25
Oklahoma City/Phx Under 204.5

College Basketball  79-73-1
Canisius/Niagra Over 150.5

Good Luck

Feb 9 2013

The weekend is here, and for any handicapper that makes a busy day trying to handicap college basketball. I actually was up to 1 AM getting stuff ready and woke up early to finish, and now I get to shovel .

We had a postive day yesterday sweeping NBA and taking the loss in hockey. The total value as of today of the account is $1,083.

NHL 8-12-1
Still early for hockey, but I would be shocked if I was not over 50% by the end of the month.
Todays games
Over 5 Ducks/Stl
Under 5  Nashville/Minn

NBA 32-24
Todays Game
Over 209.5 Golden State/Dallas

College 78-70-1
Todays games
Under 145 East Carolina/UCF
Under 118 Penn St/Nebraska
Over 165 Nebraska Omaha/Iupui
Under 137 North Dakota/Montana

Good Luck

Feb 8 2013

Small card today. Split yesterday, and I was shocked the Devils game went over. I thought I had it, but in hockey goals can come very quickly. As I get more data, the better I will be when it comes to hockey, so I am not worried.

Todays games

NHL 8-11-1

Todays Game
Ducks/Dallas over 5

NBA 30-24
Todays Games
New Orleans +4.5
Phoenix/Oklahoma Over 205.5

College 78-70-1
No games today. I am going to try to be more selective during the weekend, I understand giving out 10 games makes it difficult to bet.

I am going to start keeping dollar amounts to see how well I would do if I was trying to do this as my full time job. I will start with $1,000 and only bet 3% of my over all balance. As my bankroll increases so will my bet amounts. I will use -110 for the juice unless I note differently. I personally use 5dimes a lot, which has the lowest juice.

So we will start with betting $30 a game. For the step out games, they would be $50 or 5%.

NHL- At a loss of -123
NBA +108
College Basketball-  +70

These are only rough numbers to start off with. I know it is not the most accurate, but going forward will be more accurate.

Total +$55