Great day yesterday, and I hope to continue with the winning. NBA is nearing the All Star Break, and the fact that I am about 60% in the NBA this year is huge. You have to be conservative around this time of the year, and I did get a comment asking how I am doing so well where most handicappers have issues. I can't be certain, but I believe that motivation is hard to predict this time of the year, and I noticed a lot of handicappers use that as a major tool in determining value. I do keep an eye on motivation, but my shortfall does come with having the time to research why one team might have motivation over another. I don't get to watch Sportscenter every night, I work full time and have two young children that I have to give my time to as well. I wake up early to put my stats together and then use my lunch time to research and get lines. I am a stat guy. I love stats and I play with my excel spreadsheets to find value. I see trends like a home dog with more than 2 days rest playing against a road fav with 1 day or bb, covers 65% of the time. I then take that info with other stats that show teams that cover well as a dog or whatever. Eventually Vegas catches on these as well and the lines start moving. Once I see that the trend is over, I stop, and look for some new values. I always find some value or trend. I keep data on almost everygame. I missed a week in the NBA, but have every game for hockey. College is tough, because there are just too many games. Next year I plan to keep stats on a couple of areas so I can have good detailed info. I know that this is kind of winded, but this is what I do. My ultimate goal is to do this professionally, where I will have all the time I need. Might take a couple more years. I really try to help others who want help, so anyone can always feel free to ask me anything.
Lets get to Games!!!!!
Oh and yes I have a step out play today. My favorite Cal St Fullerton.
NHL Went 2-0-1 yesterday. 13-14-2 for the year. +$60
Only 3 games today, only game I like is Stl/Det Over 5.5. Elliot has been horrible in goal and every game seems to go over. Actually Jake Allen is in goal. I still like the over. Maybe not as much as I did before, but we will stick with it.
NBA- Won the only game. 37-25 +$30
I don't have any games today. Nothing is sticking out today, and I just dont want to bet a game to bet a game. Got lots of leans, but nothing that I want to risk $ on.
College- 2-1 yesterday 81-75-1 +$27
Todays games
Miami FL -6.5
Forham/Xavier Under 135.5
Air Force +3
NC/Duke Over 153
Step Out Play!!!!!! I will bet $50 on this game instead of $30
Cal St Fullerton/Long Beach St Over 159
Yesterday we made $117 for a new total of $1,212. I still will keep bets at $30 or around 3%. Once I am up to $1,300 I will start to push it up to $40.
Good luck everyone!!!
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