Thursday, April 24, 2014

Weather part 2

I have had the most success on Baseball with over/unders. I find that sometimes the ML can get you killed when the bullpen blows it for a starter. I found this interesting trend in a handicapping article. If you bet $500 a game blindly betting the under when the temp was under 60, you would made more than $27,000. Makes sense since the ball travels 20 more feet at 90 than it does at 45. I don't recomend blindly betting it, but good to keep in mind. So if I like an over, I will check the temp. Maybe I will still bet it, but not as much. This year I am at 80% so far on baseball. I don't expect to be that high, and I will soon share my picks. I am starting to feel comfortable with it now. I had the over in Colorado yesterday and the under on the Brewer game, which won by half a point, but a win is a win. I didn't see much value today with over unders, so I will probably stay away. I also wanted to share a loss I took yesterday. I took Miami as a favorite yesterday. Trends are never 100%, and you really want to find ones that are 60% or better. Keep an eye on pitchers who pitched gems the prior game. I looked for Harang to have a poor outing, and he didn't. Maybe Atlanta was smart and took him out early with his new hitter. Miami was in it, and could have won, but this is an example of a trend that has been very sucessful for years. Another trend with pitching is looking for pitchers who just pitched against a team and is facing them again a week or two later. There is usually an adjustment made by the pitcher or the hitters. So if a pitcher pitches a great game, I will go the other way. As well if the pitcher got killed. Once again nothing is 100%, remember its always about the long term. Once more thing before I go for the day. The importance once again of multiple sports books. The other day I took Toronto -4.5 in the NBA. Two of the three books I use had Toronto -5 and Toronto won by 5. If I didn't have the choice, I could have pushed. Instead I won, and this honestly happens like 10 to 20 times a year. There is a very thin line between being profitable and losing. You want an edge in any way you can find it. Good luck

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