Week in Vegas

Sorry I haven't posted, but I am in Las Vegas and loving it here. I was suppose to fly home today, but I am extending my stay as I am seriously considering moving here to see if I can do this full time. I have so much going on that I do not have time to post on here. I wish everyone luck

April 28 2014

A great day yesterday, thank you Portland for coming back. I had a perfect day yesterday, and I just love those days. Which they would come more often. I have gotten a couple of e-mails, and I always welcome that as well as comments on here. For baseball I will continue to concentrate just on totals. I will have a couple sides here and there, but honestly I am 78% so for on totals, and that seems to be my bread and butter. I will have a side here and there, but still getting a feel on certain teams. Won the only total game yesterday and since I re-started this, I am 3-1. I do not have any games today. This early in the season, there are some pitchers that I do not have enough data on. My data on the weather is inconsistent, so I will still track that, but still will not place anything on that. It might be something that I need years of data on, but so far temps under 60 are like 40% for unders. Now that I am not selling picks, I can feel comfortable with no picks for a day. If something comes up, I will add it to this, but for now going to enjoy a day off. Check back tomorrow. Good luck

April 27 2014

A split yesterday bringing baseball to 2-1 for the year. Today I like under 7 for Miami Mets game. My leans are Boston/ Toronto over 8.5 and Cubs/Brewers over 7.5. Brewers finally had an over game at home. There are only leans, as I am still testing them out and do not personally bet them. I have a lot of NBA games today that I like. So I am going to share them here. Washington -1.5 Goldenstate +2 Portland -2.5 Goodluck

4/26/2014

It is always great to start with a win. 1-0 and I have two games today. The Brewers got another under at home. I thought the streak would end but the scoring stopped and the game went under. I am taking the over on Colorado/Dodgers again which I got at 7 I also like the over for Pitt/Stl at 7.5 I have a strong lean on Boston/Toronto Over today. I mentioned earlier that Boston is a strong under on the road, so I am going to stay away. Good luck

April 25 2014

Todays Free pick. Colorado Dodgers Over 7.5. This pick is more like a lean, but Colorado is a big over team and the Dodgers at home have also been over a lot. The weather is a little cold, which is a slight concern, but I still like it. I am betting this with 2% of my personal bankroll. Would not go more than 5%. I thought about blindly taking the Brewers under. At home I don't think they have had an over game yet. I look for opportunity, and not sure it is here today. Note about weather. I started tracking weather a couple weeks ago. So far blindly taking cold weather unders would not work very well. I started to dig deeper and saw that divisional games were going over and the conference games were under 68% when the weather is under 60. Hence why I am still on the over on the Colorado game. I will still track this, since I truly do not have enough data yet. I just wanted to share some of the stuff that I do. I welcome any comments. Good luck

Weather part 2

I have had the most success on Baseball with over/unders. I find that sometimes the ML can get you killed when the bullpen blows it for a starter. I found this interesting trend in a handicapping article. If you bet $500 a game blindly betting the under when the temp was under 60, you would made more than $27,000. Makes sense since the ball travels 20 more feet at 90 than it does at 45. I don't recomend blindly betting it, but good to keep in mind. So if I like an over, I will check the temp. Maybe I will still bet it, but not as much. This year I am at 80% so far on baseball. I don't expect to be that high, and I will soon share my picks. I am starting to feel comfortable with it now. I had the over in Colorado yesterday and the under on the Brewer game, which won by half a point, but a win is a win. I didn't see much value today with over unders, so I will probably stay away. I also wanted to share a loss I took yesterday. I took Miami as a favorite yesterday. Trends are never 100%, and you really want to find ones that are 60% or better. Keep an eye on pitchers who pitched gems the prior game. I looked for Harang to have a poor outing, and he didn't. Maybe Atlanta was smart and took him out early with his new hitter. Miami was in it, and could have won, but this is an example of a trend that has been very sucessful for years. Another trend with pitching is looking for pitchers who just pitched against a team and is facing them again a week or two later. There is usually an adjustment made by the pitcher or the hitters. So if a pitcher pitches a great game, I will go the other way. As well if the pitcher got killed. Once again nothing is 100%, remember its always about the long term. Once more thing before I go for the day. The importance once again of multiple sports books. The other day I took Toronto -4.5 in the NBA. Two of the three books I use had Toronto -5 and Toronto won by 5. If I didn't have the choice, I could have pushed. Instead I won, and this honestly happens like 10 to 20 times a year. There is a very thin line between being profitable and losing. You want an edge in any way you can find it. Good luck

An early thought

Historically Unders have always been more profitable than overs. Vegas knows that, because who wants to root for a low scoring game. So an under trend can make one a lot of money. Keep in mind things change and nothing will last forever. So use proper bank management and keep an eye when the trend startes to fade. My early thought today is on Boston Redsox. Look at them for unders. Especially on the road.

Importance of Multiple Sportbooks

I get asked a lot of questions on what sportsbook I use. I personally use 3 sportsbooks. If you do research you can find ones that you can trust, but it is important to have at least two to compare lines. So if you like a certain team, you can see if there is a difference which can give you an a bit of an advantage or at least better juice. 5dimes has a reduced juice line that I normally end up using becuase of the reduced juice, so instead of -110 its -104 or lower. Every dime counts. I should be coming up with some picks shortly. I've started to notice lots of trends, so it will be testing them in the coming weeks. I notice some tired arms out there, well at least they seem tired. Noticed some pitchers with less speed on the ball.

Food for thought

Thanks to those who sent me an e-mail, and I will try to get to your questions when I can. I want to share something I learned last year from a profesional. It is the importance of weather and wind. It is always important to look at wind. There are certain stadiums where you will will see the wind blowing out, and can easily take advantage of the over. Last year I made a killing on the overs in Boston and Chicago by researching the weather. So what I am doing this year is documenting the weather for the stadium and pitcher. Tonights game the wind can be a factor on the Yanks Houston game and Atlanta Brewers. The wind is actually looking to blow in for the Rangers game. I will keep a close eye on these games, and will check the weather again closer to game time. I am not going to blindly bet yet. Stadiums are unique and pithers can too. If a pitcher is on, the wind wont make a difference if the hitter can't get a good swing. One example last year was when the Cubs were playing the Brewers, and the o/u line was at 14 or 15. Sure enough the wind was blowing out, and there were two pitchers with very poor eras. I think there was like 21 runs scored. If you are betting an over and under, it is always a good idea to look at the weather. Hope this helps everyone and good luck! Ok as a pick, I like The Brewers tonight.

Coming back with picks shortly

Baseball has started, today being opening day. As a handicapper, anyone who knows me knows that I live and die with data. I never start off well trying to use data from last year, so I usually don't post picks till May. I want to get a good feel for teams. I find that some bats take longer to warm up as do some pitchers, so I do not feel I have an advantage at this time. I will be no longert associated with any groups selling picks, so I am free to post as I wish. I hope to get some chatter going on. I feel that we can all learn from each other and become better. So I invite anyone to add comments to this blog and reach out to me personally. I can't discuss Basketball or Hockey at this time, but I all aboard for baseball. About me for anyone who cares- I've been handicapping games for probably 10 years now. I love numbers, so I keep spreadsheets on all sports to see where I have an edge. I spend hours working on becoming better and eventually doing this full time. I recently signed to sell my picks to a group I cannot name, and I hated it. I felt that they were never being honest with their clients, and I didn't want to be associated. I was trying to make some extra cash, but it never worked out for me. For one, if I didn't like any games they pretty much forced me to pick one. There was also times where they would have us push a game just so they can try and get the line to move and middle it. I signed an agreement, and was stuck. It was not worth it for me. I use to be the guy who would pay someone for their picks. I have never done well with anyone else long term. You can't really trust the guys out there. So I am back on my own, and I truly want to help others. I am not here trying to make an extra buck. I want to create a forum of guys like me, trying to do it on their own. So please add comments and talk about games you like and why. I am curious on how some people can see an edge when the season starts. I hope to make you guys better handicappers and hopefully some money as well.

I am coming back soon

I plan on coming back to post picks. What I want to create is something for everyone to use. I want people to be able to post questions or post thoughts on a game. I want to create something to make everyone a better handicapper. I don't know if a blog is the best place to use, so I am open to suggestions. Anyone who is good at that, please let me know. My e-mail is smd163@yahoo.com Oh and for a pick, I like Houston/Minn Over 208 today. I plan to have a good article on hockey. Hockey is a tad differen't after the break, so there are some very interesting trends that I want to share. Last olympic break I was 70% up to the playoffs.